April 12, 2012 6:00:13 pm
Emerging markets,including India,registered the fastest rate of growth in the last three quarters during January-March this year,underlining their ‘relative immunity’ to the happenings in the developed economies.
The HSBC emerging market index (EMI) — a quarterly indicator derived from the monthly service and manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ surveys — rose to 53.4 in the first quarter of 2012 from 52.4 in the final quarter of 2011.
“The latest HSBC EMI underlines the relative immunity of emerging nations to the economic permafrost (permafrost) of the developed world,” HSBC’s Chief Economist Stephen King said.
He,however,added the “emerging nations still have many years of economic ‘catch-up’ ahead of them”.
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This is the fastest rate of growth in the last three quarters,driven by the resumption of manufacturing growth and supplemented by the continued expansion in service activity,the HSBC report said.
The first three months of this year saw sustained expansion of activity at service providers. Manufacturers also saw output increase for the first time in three quarters,albeit at a marginal rate.
Robust rates of growth in service activity were recorded in Brazil (fastest in almost four years),India (three-quarter high),and in Russia business optimism for the next 12 months is also upbeat,the survey said.
China was,however,the only one of the big-four emerging markets to register lower manufacturing production in the first quarter of this year.
Despite two successive quarters of growth,EMI remains at a relatively low level,largely due to further fall in Chinese export orders and sluggishness in domestic demand (in the emerging economies) because of quantitative tightening.
Notwithstanding the fact that demand for goods produced by emerging market manufacturers on global markets remained muted in the first quarter,India was the only nation to have recorded growth of new export orders among the largest emerging markets.
The report further noted emerging market inflation has generally eased outside India and policymakers are returning their focus to promoting growth over limiting inflation.
HSBC further cautioned that with interest rates in the western world remaining persistently low,policymakers in the emerging world will have to be aware of “hot money”,which flows from low interest rate yielding countries into higher interest rates nations.
Even as emerging market nations have to balance risks of too little growth and commodity driven inflation,”the outlook remains encouraging with China,India,Brazil and Mexico all set to be top ten global economies by 2050,” King said.
By 2050,the top three economies in the world are likely to be China,the US and India while the top ten will also include,from the emerging world,Brazil and Mexico.
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